We’re just a few weeks away from the start of the 2024/25 National Hockey League season, with rookie tournaments already starting, preseason action beginning next week, and opening night coming on October 8th. Rosters are starting to take form – or at least are in the “concepts of a plan” stage – and those looking to get ahead of the game on the futures market will no doubt want to make their first move soon. Over the course of the summer, we’ve already started previewing bits and pieces of the league at the team and player levels, but now it’s time to dig a bit deeper.
In the first of our division-by-division breakdowns, we’ll be focusing on the Central Division.
This post is part of a series looking at all four NHL divisions. Make sure to check out all of our previews as they come!
Atlantic Division – Metropolitan Division – Central Division – Pacific Division
 | Points | Over | Under | 100+ PTS | Make PO | Miss PO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dallas Stars | 103.5 | -110 | -110 | -225 | -550 | +375 |
| Colorado Avalanche | 102.5 | +100 | -130 | -200 | -550 | +375 |
| Nashville Predators | 99.5 | -115 | -105 | -115 | -300 | +225 |
| Winnipeg Jets | 96.5 | -115 | -105 | +170 | -180 | +145 |
| Minnesota Wild | 94.5 | -130 | +100 | +200 | -150 | +120 |
| Utah Hockey Club | 88.5 | -130 | +110 | +375 | +170 | -220 |
| St. Louis Blues | 86.5 | -110 | -110 | +550 | +180 | -230 |
| Chicago Blackhawks | 73.5 | -110 | -110 | +2500 | +850 | -1600 |
The Central isn’t the league’s sexiest division, but it does have some layers of excitement to it.
At the top is a team that many thought had a really strong shot at the Stanley Cup last year – and to their credit, the Dallas Stars had a pretty great run, finishing with the league’s second-best record and going to the Western Conference Final before falling to the Edmonton Oilers. Dallas has no shortage of depth up and down its charts, spearheaded by the incredible three-headed beast that was their 2017 Draft Class, including franchise forward Jason Robertson, franchise defenceman Miro Heiskanen, and franchise goaltender Jake Oettinger. Beneath them lies a ton of secondary talent, though the team did suffer a bit of a blow this summer in losing Radek Faksa through trade and Joe Pavelski to retirement, among others. Most of their acquisitions to build the team back up came on the blue line, though their most exciting “add” might be a full rookie season for Logan Stankoven, who had a great first taste of the NHL, including the playoffs.
Not far behind Dallas, calling back to the glory days of the Late 90s and Early 2000s for both teams, are the Colorado Avalanche, who are looking for a window to get back into the Stanley Cup conversation. Last year saw them fall in the second round to the Stars in six games, but Nathan MacKinnon, Cale Makar, and their supporting cast appear eager to show they still have their top gear in them. A few interesting bets on their blue line including Oliver Kylington from Calgary and Erik Brannstrom from Ottawa can add to an already deep and mobile group, and there hasn’t been much in terms of high-end subtraction for this group. There are a few question marks, however, in Valeri Nichushkin and Gabriel Landeskog. Nichushkin is currently in the midst of a six-month drug suspension from the league’s Player Assistance program, while Landeskog is still attempting to work his way back to the ice from injuries suffered in the 2022 playoffs. While the outlook for the captain hasn’t been optimistic in the last two years, the team does have hope he’ll return this season. If he can be even half of what he once was for them, that would be a huge add.
Moving down the line, there might not be a team in the league with more excitement around them than the Predators. Barry Trotz hit the Nitrous Oxide button on the team’s rebuild timeline after seeing significant progress on the ice last season, catching the hockey world off guard with the free-agent signings of Steven Stamkos, Jonathan Marchessault, and Brady Skjei. He also decided to hold onto star goaltender Juuse Saros, locking him up to an eight-year extension priced at a rate that could age quite nicely if last year’s statistical dip was an anomaly and not a new normal. Andrew Brunette did a spectacular job working with the pieces he had behind the bench last season – it’ll be exciting to see what he can do with a few additional weapons.
Moving to the most central-feeling teams around, the Jets and Wild seem to be in semi-purgatory states, though there’s some wiggle room for better seasons. After all, few expected Winnipeg to be as successful as they were last year, though having the best goaltender in the league in Connor Hellebuyck certainly helped. Scoring was an issue for the team throughout the year, and it’s fair to wonder if they did enough to address it. Perhaps the growth of a player like Cole Perfetti could be of help. Minnesota didn’t really do much to build up their roster, though Matt Boldy and Brock Faber’s development could both be helpful to the cause.
Utah HC might be newcomers by name, but at the end of the day, they’re still building off of what was the Arizona Coyotes last year, and it’ll be interesting to see if both their roster efforts and the fresh start will give them a boost. Mikhail Sergachev was one of the biggest trade acquisitions by any team this summer, and it’ll be interesting to see if he can be a true top defenceman away from the Lightning. John Marino was also a potentially shrewd add from the club, acquired from New Jersey. Can this be the year Clayton Keller hits true superstardom, and can the rest of his team feed off of new energy in a new state?
The St. Louis Blues made some big splashes this summer, including bringing offer sheets back to the NHL while plucking Philip Broberg and Dylan Hollaway from the Edmonton Oilers. They used their salary cap leverage to take on Radek Faksa from Dallas for future considerations and added Joseph Brothers Mathieu and Pierre-Olivier from Ottawa and Pittsburgh, respectively. It’s a nice improvement for a team at a crossroads, but it probably won’t be enough to get very far this year.
Lastly, at the bottom, we have the Chicago Blackhawks. In a sense, they’re still sorting through the rubble of their scorched-earth rebuild, but have lots of reason to feel hopeful for progress this year. Connor Bedard will only get more impactful, and they’ve added a ton of recognizable names to the mix, including Tyler Bertuzzi, TJ Brodie, Ilya Mikeyev, Alec Martinez, and they even brought back Teuvo Teravainen, who has spent the last few years in Carolina. Laurent Brossoit, who was one of the league’s best backups last year, will give them some help between the pipes. They’ll also get a full year from Taylor Hall, who was only able to draw into ten games of his first year with the team. They’re still far from good, but they’re closer to fun than they’ve been in a little while.
| Line | 23/24 | YoY | xGF% | PDO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dallas Stars | 103.5 | 113 | -9.5 | 55.19 | 100.6 |
| Colorado Avalanche | 102.5 | 107 | -4.5 | 51.73 | 100.5 |
| Nashville Predators | 99.5 | 99 | +0.5 | 53.04 | 100.4 |
| Winnipeg Jets | 96.5 | 110 | -13.5 | 51.41 | 102.5 |
| Minnesota Wild | 94.5 | 87 | +7.5 | 50.87 | 99.9 |
| Utah Hockey Club | 88.5 | 77 | +11.5 | 48.43 | 101 |
| St. Louis Blues | 86.5 | 92 | -5.5 | 44.09 | 100.5 |
| Chicago Blackhawks | 73.5 | 52 | +21.5 | 42.35 | 97.8 |
PDO: A combination of Shooting and Save % at 5v5. Large deviations from 100.0 can be signs of fortune/misfortune.
Next, we move on to the projections. As we’ve mentioned with every division and will continue to remind of, the top teams in the division from the previous season will almost always be projected for a total points decline in the following year. Great teams can be expected to be consistently great, but to finish near the top of the league requires both excellence and a lot of things to go the right way, and the betting models aren’t here to project luck.
As such, Dallas’ projected total is nearly ten points lower than last year’s, but they’re still atop the division and near the highest in the league, with Colorado not far behind them. These both make plenty of sense to me – the teams might be slightly worse than last year’s out of the gate, but they’re still the cream of the crop in the Central, and among the best in the West.
Nashville is a difficult line to navigate. Everyone agrees that they might be the most improved team in the league on paper when looking at offseason moves, but bet365 and other top sportsbooks have their line right near where they were at last year, given that they’d exceeded expectations to begin with. I lean towards them building off the prior number, though – I think a good chunk of the overachievement was earned and not stumbled upon, the adds are big, and I think Saros is in for a bounce-back year that will cancel out a good chunk of the potential regression in the other direction.
The market sees the Jets as big fallers and I think that’s totally fair – the team was buoyed by spectacular goaltending, and as great as Hellebuyck is, it’s hard to repeat this sort of form for several years in a row – and he’s coming off back-to-back, Vezina-quality seasons with heavy workloads. You don’t have Broissoit filling in behind him anymore, and Kaapo Kakhonen is a bit of a wildcard. Throw in a change behind the bench with Rick Bowness retiring, and there’s a chance for a steep dive here.
The Wild being priced as an unexciting fringe-playoff team is very Minnesota, to say the least. I see growth in Utah’s immediate future, but a dozen points is a lot of ground to catch up. St. Louis is exceedingly difficult to gauge – I think they got a little bit better, but they still aren’t great, and likely weren’t as good as last year’s totals. Chicago will undeniably improve, but if a dozen points is a lot of ground, 22 is a chasm.
Confidently Over: Nashville Predators
Confidently Under:
Feeling Over: Dallas Stars
Feeling Under: Winnipeg Jets, Chicago Blackhawks
Use Your Judgement: Colorado Avalanche, Minnesota Wild
Let It Play Out: St. Louis Blues
| Win Division | Pres Trophy | Stanley Cup |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dallas Stars | +190 | +800 | +1000 |
| Colorado Avalanche | +220 | +900 | +1100 |
| Nashville Predators | +333 | +1600 | +1700 |
| Winnipeg Jets | +600 | +2500 | +2500 |
| Minnesota Wild | +1200 | +3300 | +5500 |
| Utah Hockey Club | +2000 | +9000 | +8000 |
| St. Louis Blues | +1600 | +10000 | +5500 |
| Chicago Blackhawks | +9000 | +25000 | +10000 |
In terms of big prizes, this is likely a two-horse race, and they’re two great horses. The Stars and Avalanche both have foundational players spread across their lineups in good spots, and a lot of skill and experience supporting them. They’ve both been strong teams for a few years running now and about equally easy to see as going on runs. I like the Stars a little better – I picked them to win their head-to-head series against each other in the playoffs, and entered the postseason with them as my Stanley Cup pick. I don’t know if that latter feeling still holds, but I do think that even with the changes, I’d give them the edge over the full season.
In the playoffs, it’s a little bit closer, and I could see the argument for flipping things the other way – Colorado has won before, and we could see a resolution with Nichushkin and Landeskog in time for the spring which makes them even deeper.
I have to admit, though, I have hard time entirely dismissing Nashville. I don’t think they’re the best team on paper in this division, let alone the league, but they’re starting to look really solid, and the best runs they’ve had over the years have always come when the team is liked, but not strongly favoured.
Check back in the coming days as we wrap the divisional preview series up with the Pacific Division.
